Andrew Small

Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program
Berlin Office
Indo-Pacific Program
GMF Expert,
Staff
My Areas of Expertise:
China East Asia

Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF's Indo-Pacific Program, which he established in 2006. His research focuses on U.S.–China relations, Europe–China relations, Chinese policy in South Asia, and broader developments in China's foreign and economic policy. He is the author of The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future / No Limits: the Inside Story of China’s War with the West, which was named one of the 2022 Financial Times Politics Books of the Year, and The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics.

He was based in GMF’s Brussels office for five years and the DC office for ten years, and has worked as a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and as an ESU scholar in the office of Senator Edward M. Kennedy. His articles and papers have been published in Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, and many other journals, magazines, and newspapers. Small was educated at Balliol College, University of Oxford.

His articles and papers have been published in The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Washington Quarterly, as well as many other journals, magazines, and newspapers. He is the author of the book The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics published with Hurst / Oxford University Press in 2015. Small was educated at Balliol College, University of Oxford.

To contact him, please email [email protected].

Media Mentions

by
Andrew Small
“ There hasn't been a question yet on what kind of significant things China could be asked to do, because previously Russia didn't need to resupply. But they are hitting that juncture. How long is China willing to say to Russia it will not do it? ”
BBC
by
Andrew Small
“ China needs a strong, capable Pakistan, to continue to function as an effective counterbalance to India.
It’s important that they’re not seen to let Pakistan down, because if they let Pakistan down in this situation, then the message to everyone else is that they can’t be relied on. ”
The Guardian
by
Andrew Small
“ If they treat Russia as an equal -- even if they don't think they are -- then this will pay dividends for China, and that's been a growing part of how Xi has approached this entire relationship. ”
Radio Free Europe
by
Andrew Small
“ The writing's on the wall. We're already facing a situation in which there will be a squeeze on firms' capacity to do good business in China ”
DW News
by
Andrew Small
“ In one way, it's relatively normal that European leaders do their own bilateral visits. There is a national agenda, as well as the European one. I think the question from other leaders, as we saw in the European Council the other week, is, again, what has been coordinated by way of a European message? ”
euronews
by
Andrew Small
“ The unpredictability is going to be absolutely endemic for anyone—official or private sector—who’s operating in Afghanistan. ”
Vice
by
Andrew Small
“ The combination of the kind of language used by the G7 and (China's formal inclusion) in NATO strategic documents is indeed a blow for (China), and something that they would have hoped and wished to be able to prevent. ”
CNN
by
Andrew Small
“ China had spent about $25 billion on CPEC by mid-2020, but that investment was already pushing the upper limits of the project, instead of being the base for a 'more ambitious plan.' ”
The Hindu
by
Andrew Small
“ It’s certainly the worst security situation China has faced in Pakistan since the late 2000s but now the economic presence is far greater and so there’s far more at stake for both sides. ”
Al Jazeera
by
Andrew Small
“ China has been reluctant to have formal alliances that would essentially be treaty obligations — the only formal alliance it has is with North Korea but even that it treats as an aberrational case that it's slightly embarrassed about. ”
Express
by
Andrew Small
“ China thought that this would be successful and whatever was done... They hadn't expected it to drag out in the manner that it has, they hadn't expected the level of resilience on Ukraine's part, they hadn't expected Russia to be as ineffective as it has been, and I think they had also not expected to be called out for what they were doing to the level that they were. ”
Express
by
Andrew Small
“ The close Sino-Russian relationship means the impact of sanctions against Russia extends to China. ”
Express
by
Andrew Small
“ I think China will at least be disappointed and frustrated as they had counted on Russia to do better than this. They think Russia misjudged this and pulled China in — but it was their decision. If you hadn't had months of build up for this, you hadn't had people warning China, you hadn't had the level of the massing of troops on Ukraine's border, then you could've said China was tricked into it. ”
Express
by
Andrew Small
“ Pakistan should be one of the biggest winners from China’s rise as a global power. But if its internal security deteriorates or if Chinese anxieties about the country’s political direction worsen, it will be a great lost opportunity for the country. ”
Japan Times
by
Andrew Small
“ Over the past few weeks, we've seen a lot of statements from European leaders expressing their concern about China's budding relationship with Russia. Regardless, EU leaders are increasingly aware of the need to bring about long-term rebalancing in its relations with China, as the Russian invasion has made EU nations realize the risks of dependence on authoritarian states that make military threats to their neighbors. ”
Deutsche Welle
by
Andrew Small
“ The current US measures against Moscow also have another goal, although the main purpose is of course to make Putin pay the price, but the secondary purpose is to warn China of the possible consequences of any military action against Taiwan. ”
Translated from Chinese (Mandarin)
BBC
by
Andrew Small
“ China seems unwilling to take any steps beyond expressing the desire for peace, as it wants to avoid directly interfering with what Russia wants to do. I think the sense is still they would give Russia the space to do what it wants... China is not comfortable leaning on Russia, and I think they would question whether it would be successful. ”
Deutsche Welle
by
Andrew Small
“ I think the sense is still [China] would give Russia the space to do what it wants. ”
DW News
by
Andrew Small
“ Putin may have done this anyway, but also it was unquestionably an enabling backdrop that was provided by the joint statement, the visit and Xi’s association with all of these things. ”
New York Times
by
Andrew Small
“ [China had hoped for a government in Afghanistan that, although Taliban-dominated, could] tick enough boxes with the international community [to achieve diplomatic recognition.] ”
VOA News
by
Andrew Small
“ China has had some bad experiences and is aware of the political and economic risks of the deteriorating financial situation in many countries. So they are lending less. ”
Translated from French
Le Monde
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Andrew Small
“ This ushers in a more competitive era in development aid. The recipient countries will now have an alternative to Chinese money. It is up to the EU to prove that its aid is better. ”
France 24
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Andrew Small
“ [This] marked the first serious effort from the European side to put packages together and figure out financing mechanisms, so countries considering taking loans from China have an alternative option. ”
BBC
by
Andrew Small
“ China has limited means to coerce Lithuania economically. It could attempt to expand the pressure it extends towards the EU as a whole…but the risks of that backfiring are enormous, particularly given the deterioration in China-EU ties in recent years. ”
Translated from Chinese (Mandarin)
BBC
by
Andrew Small
“ The Taliban have sought to avoid embarrassment with China as a result of any Uyghur militant activities, but it would be a very different matter if they actually handed them over. ”
RFE/RL
by
Andrew Small
“ Views differ within the bloc, but everyone agrees on some difficult policy areas, such as sanctioning Chinese officials for their repressive practices in Xinjiang. ”
Nikkei Asia
by
Andrew Small
“ China has since scaled back its efforts. The Covid-19 crisis has come and gone, and major projects are not without political and diplomatic consequences. ”
Translated from French
Le Monde
by
Andrew Small
“ En effet, la nouvelle initiative américano-britanico-australienne est définie très précisément et étroitement comme un partenariat militaire et sécuritaire, puisqu’il s’agit de collaborer dans les domaines des sous-marins, du cyberespace, de l’informatique quantique et de l’intelligence artificielle. ”
France 24
by
Andrew Small
“ The lines are blurred on China’s part between who constitutes a terrorist and who constitutes someone who has simply been politically active. ”
New York Times
by
Andrew Small
“ In Afghanistan, no EU state was able to operate without U.S. support, not even the U.K. ”
Time
by
Andrew Small
“ Beijing will be happy to dangle promises and engage in talks on the BRI and CPEC extensions, but will not move ahead with anything on the ground until they are confident of political and security conditions. ”
Nikkei Asia
by
Andrew Small
“ China is now seeing all of this as intertwined and part of a more adverse shift in the Pakistan and Afghanistan context. ”
RFE/RL
by
Andrew Small
“ [China] tends to see Afghanistan as a trap and will be wary about taking on too prominent a role there. ”
NBC News
by
Andrew Small
“ It’s not clear why China should have anything to do with [Afghanistan], let alone why China should be having friendly relations with a government that behaved and continues to behave in the manner that the Taliban does. ”
Quartz
by
Andrew Small
“ I think China’s still sees Afghanistan as kind of a wild west environment. It is not one that I think they want to see as some kind of fabulously interconnected hub for the entire region. ”
The Sydney Morning Herald
by
Andrew Small
“ China does think the U.S. will have to count on it more in Afghanistan in [the] future, and they’re [also] attempting to couple it with climate change... ”
The Guardian

Featured Work

The North Korea Problem

Advances in the DPRK’s missile and nuclear capabilities mean that the North Korean challenge is now, as former undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman...
2m read
by
Andrew Small